Brent crude hit $111 per barrel on March 28, up more than $32 compared to a year earlier and roughly $20 above its level before the conflict began on Feb. 28, according to Legacy IAS analysis citing current market data. Prices have gyrated between $92 and above $118 a barrel in recent weeks, with the IEA calling the current disruption “the most significant supply shock in the history of the oil market.”
The Strait of Hormuz, through which nearly 20% of global oil supply normally flows, remains effectively closed to most commercial shipping. The IEA said member countries unanimously agreed on March 11 to release 400 million barrels from emergency reserves, the biggest such release on record, in an attempt to stabilize markets.
In the US, futures markets now price the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike by end of 2026 at 52%, the first time that threshold has been crossed, according to the CME Group FedWatch tool, as cited by CNBC. The OECD sharply raised its US inflation forecast to 4.2%, well above the Fed’s 2.7% estimate. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that import prices jumped 1.3% in February, the largest monthly gain since March 2022. The S&P 500 fell 3.4% from Wednesday through Friday, CNBC reported. LNG prices in Japan and South Korea are up 48%, adding to inflationary pressures across Asia.
OPEC+ agreed on March 1 to begin increasing production in April 2026 by 206,000 barrels per day, according to the US Energy Information Administration. Australia announced new fuel security measures over the weekend to ensure supply as oil prices soared, CNN reported.
India’s oil marketing companies are absorbing roughly ₹2,400 crore per day in under-recovery as the government continues to hold domestic fuel prices steady.
